Dragon Tiger Probability Calculator
Exact probabilities and house edges for any deck count, Tie payout and tie rule.
Dragon Tiger Probability Calculator
Dragon Tiger is two cards from a shoe, so every probability in the game can be worked out exactly. Choose the number of decks, what the table pays on a Tie, and what happens to a Dragon or Tiger bet when the cards tie. The results update as you change them. The explanations behind each figure, and the studio rules they come from, are on our Odds & Payouts page.
This calculates odds. It does not predict cards.
No tool, app or pattern can tell you what the next round will be. After five Dragons in a row, the chance of Dragon on the next round is the same as it was on the first. What can be known exactly is how often each result comes up over the long run and how much each bet costs, and that is what this page shows.
Set the Table Rules
Results: 8 decks (416 cards), Tie 11 to 1, half lost on a tie
Dragon wins
46.27%
Tiger wins
46.27%
Tie
7.47%
exactly 31/415
| Bet | Pays | Wins | Fair payout | House edge | Expected loss on $1,000.00 wagered |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dragon or Tiger | 1 to 1 | 46.27% | Not applicable (tie rule sets the edge) | 3.73% | $37.35 |
| Tie | 11 to 1 | 7.47% | 12.39 to 1 | 10.36% | $103.61 |
| Suited Tie | 50 to 1 | 1.69% (7/415) | 58.29 to 1 | 13.98% | $139.76 |
| Big, Small, Odd or Even on one card (the 7 loses) | 1 to 1 | 46.15% (6/13) | 1.17 to 1 | 7.69% | $76.92 |
Expected loss is the long-run average: stake × rounds × house edge, assuming the same bet every round. Any single session will land above or below it. The Suited Tie and one-card side bets are not offered at every table, and some tables price the one-card bets differently; see the studio table on the Odds & Payouts page.
How the Numbers Are Computed
Deal the Dragon card first. With D decks the shoe held 52D cards, so 52D − 1 remain, and 4D − 1 of them share the Dragon card's rank. That gives every formula on this page:
- P(Tie) = (4D − 1) ÷ (52D − 1)
- P(Suited Tie) = (D − 1) ÷ (52D − 1), because D − 1 copies of the identical card remain
- P(Dragon) = P(Tiger) = (1 − P(Tie)) ÷ 2, since neither side is favored
- Dragon or Tiger edge = P(Tie) ÷ 2 when half the stake is lost on a tie, or P(Tie) when all of it is
- Tie edge = 1 − (payout + 1) × P(Tie)
- Fair payout = (1 − P) ÷ P, the payout at which the house would keep nothing
The figures assume a freshly shuffled shoe, which is what a player faces at the start of every shoe and, on average, throughout it. We compute these ourselves rather than quoting anyone; our editorial standards explain why.
What the Calculator Shows
- The tie rule matters most. Switch between half and whole stake lost and the Dragon or Tiger edge doubles. No change of deck count comes close.
- Fewer decks help the main bets and hurt the tie bets. Ties become slightly rarer, so Dragon and Tiger lose a little less often to them, while a Tie bet at the same payout wins less often.
- No Tie payout on offer is fair. The fair price is above 12 to 1 at every deck count, and no table we have read pays more than 11.
- The rulebooks we have read use four to eight decks. Smaller shoes are included for comparison. How to check which rules a table uses is on our How to Play page, and why no staking system changes these figures is on Winning Strategies.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the probability of winning a Dragon or Tiger bet?
With eight decks, Dragon and Tiger each win 46.27% of rounds and 7.47% of rounds are ties. The figures move slightly with the number of decks: with four decks each side wins 46.38% and ties fall to 7.25%.
Can a calculator predict the next Dragon Tiger result?
No. Each round is two cards from a shuffled shoe, and the chance of Dragon, Tiger or a tie is the same whatever the previous rounds showed. This calculator gives exact long-run probabilities and house edges. It does not, and cannot, predict an outcome.
How is the Dragon Tiger tie probability calculated?
After the first card is dealt, a tie needs the second card to match its rank. With D decks there are 4D cards of each rank, so 4D minus 1 matching cards remain among 52D minus 1. P(Tie) is therefore (4D - 1) / (52D - 1), which is 31/415 or 7.47% at eight decks.
Why does the tie rule matter more than the deck count?
Going from eight decks to four moves the Dragon or Tiger house edge from 3.73% to 3.62% when a tie costs half the stake. Changing the tie rule from half lost to all lost doubles it, from 3.73% to 7.47% at eight decks. Check the tie rule first.
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